Has Goshen Been Deceived With Falsified Data?
  • We want to know. Why was this $20,000 (or more) of our tax money paid for a video study that presents statistically impossible data?
  • Was this a bogus study done in order to persuade The Citizens Traffic Task Force to accept a plan being promoted by special interest groups? 
  • Have you heard city officials make the claim that we have mostly "local" traffic on the streets they want to widen in Goshen?  Take a look at other evidence from MACOG. What about Truck Traffic?
You be the judge - Do think this is honest data?
The DATA shown here is from TABLES 5, 6, 7 and 8 from the often quoted 
(VIDEO) DESTINATION STUDY FOR CITY OF GOSHEN 
by MHM Associates, South Bend, IN, dated September 29, 1998
On the spreadsheet below one can see IDENTICAL vehicle counts reported by MHM at various exits (OUTBOUND vehicles) from Goshen (shown below in colored cells).
OUTBOUND vehicles
INBOUND vehicles
US 33 S
US 33 N
SR 15 S
SR 15 N
SR 119 W
SR 4 E
TOTALS
US 33 South = 6077
-
900
164
232
86
109
1491
(from Table 5)
-
14.81%
2.70%
3.82%
1.42%
1.79%
24.54%
US 33 North = 9029
611
-
164
262
86
109
1232
(from Table 6)
6.77%
-
1.82%
2.90%
0.95%
1.21%
13.64%
SR 15 South = 3878
337
574
-
232
93
110
1346
(from Table 7)
8.69%
14.80%
-
5.98%
2.40%
2.84%
34.71%
SR 15 North = 3946
337
574
164
-
93
110
1278
(from Table 8)
8.54%
14.55%
4.16%
-
2.36%
2.79%
32.39%
SR 119 West = 2725 
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
(1)
-
-
-
N O  D A T A  P R O V I D E D
-
SR 4 East = 1837
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
(1)
-
-
-
N O  D A T A  P R O V I D E D
-
TOTALS
1285
2048
492
726
358
438
5347
22930
5.60%
8.93%
2.15%
3.17%
1.56%
1.91%
23.32%
TOTAL SURVEYED
22930
-
-
-
-
-
-
THROUGH TOTAL
5347
23.32%
 Of which 1,907 of 5,347 or 35.66% stayed on same route
NOTES: (1) NOT INCLUDED IN TOTALS DUE TO FACT THAT NO DATA WAS PROVIDED FOR OUTBOUND MATCHES.

This data was claimed to have been based on counts of matching license plates on vehicles entering and leaving the city limits of Goshen, Indiana, July 23, 1998, between 6 a.m. and 6 p.m.  Data from the individual tables in the MHM report are placed onto a common spreadsheet shown above. 

The probability of finding this many matching sets of IDENTICAL numbers in this kind of traffic count is so improbable that the results of this study can  NOT  be trusted to be based on actual data. The City of Goshen paid in excess of $20,000 for this study. Subsequently, the Mayor of Goshen paid an additional $5,000 in city funds to have this and other traffic studies verified. In the end, we are indebted to a concerned citizen who questioned the voracity of the results. He took the time (at no cost to the taxpayers of Goshen) to audit the report and discovered these improbable matching sets of numbers. 

This study has often been cited by city officials to support their claim that most of the Goshen traffic is local traffic.  During the meetings of the Mayor's Traffic Task Force in 1998 this study was used to discredit the opinions of those who contended that much of the traffic problems in Goshen could be alleviated by a bypass. 

This data has been reviewed by three independent investigators with Ph.D. degrees in mathematics. None of them believed that this data could have occurred as the study reports it.


Back to Press Conference Report on the April 24, 2000, Goshen Truck Survey
This study shows that most of the truck traffic is not local traffic.      top of page


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